Premier League: How Crucial Is a Fast Season Start?
Examining how early victories shape Premier League campaigns and identifying the toughest and easiest opening fixtures.
The Premier League season kicks off Friday with teams eager for early victories.
Significance of a Strong Start
Last season, the top eight teams after five games finished in the top eight, underscoring how early form can shape a campaign. Of 20 sides, 12 stayed within two places of their early position, and 18 remained within four.
Championship Contenders' Early Form
Only 36% of sides leading at the end of September go on to win the title. The record 28 points from 10 games by Manchester City (twice), Chelsea and Liverpool all led to championships. Yet Newcastle (1995–96) and Arsenal (2022–23) each hit 27 points and faltered, while City claimed four straight titles despite never topping the table after 10 matches.
Promoted Teams and Survival Benchmarks
For newly promoted clubs, 11 points from the first 10 matches is crucial: no team in the past decade has been relegated from that mark, whereas those with 10 points face just a 25% survival rate. Last season’s Leicester fell with 10 points, while Wolves survived from just three.
Fixture Difficulty Rankings
Opta rates Manchester United and Arsenal as having the toughest opening five fixtures, including matches against each other, City, Chelsea or Liverpool. Aston Villa face the easiest start, followed by Crystal Palace and West Ham. Burnley, despite games against Tottenham, United and Liverpool, rank fourth thanks to an early relegation six-pointer with Sunderland.
Early-season form can forecast final standings, but momentum swings and fixture difficulty remain decisive factors.
This topic was reported by BBC Sport.
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