New York City Recovery Index October 2022: Economic Updates & Trends

Monitoring New York City's Path to Economic Revival Amid Ongoing Challenges

Editor's update: This report reflects the 113th week of the NYC Recovery Index, initially published on November 1, 2022. For the most current information, visit the NYC Recovery Index homepage.

For the week ending October 22, 2022, New York City's economic rebound plateaued, with the recovery index holding steady at 77 out of 100. COVID-19 hospitalizations have surged to their highest levels since mid-August, signaling a cautious reminder of the pandemic's lingering impact. Unemployment claims ticked upward but remain aligned with pre-pandemic seasonal averages. The real estate market showed positive momentum, with rental vacancies expanding and home sales experiencing a modest increase. Subway usage and restaurant reservations inched higher, reaching nearly two-thirds of their pre-pandemic activity.

According to the joint NYC Recovery Index by Investopedia and NY1, the city’s economic recovery score stands at 77 out of 100, indicating that after more than two and a half years into the pandemic, NYC has regained just over 75% of its pre-pandemic economic activity.

COVID-19 Hospitalizations Climb Again

Hospitalizations due to COVID-19 in NYC have risen after a brief decline, averaging 114 daily admissions for the week ending October 22—16 more than the previous week's average of 98. This increase marks the highest hospitalization rate since mid-August, reflecting setbacks in controlling the virus spread.

The CDC reports that nearly all current infections are linked to Omicron variants. The BA.5 subvariant’s dominance has waned, now representing 35.7% of cases, while newer strains BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 account for 23.5% and 19% of infections, respectively, in the region.

Vaccination rates remain stable with 79.8% of NYC residents fully vaccinated. Since the pandemic began, approximately 2.94 million confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases and 42,870 related deaths have been recorded.

Unemployment Claims See a Slight Increase

This week, unemployment insurance claims rose modestly by 430, totaling 5,660 claims, slightly above the 2019 pre-pandemic rolling average of 5,587 for the same period. This indicates that unemployment levels have essentially returned to normal seasonal trends.

Home Sales Hold Steady with Slight Growth

Pending home sales in NYC showed little fluctuation, increasing by 18 units to 439 homes sold for the week ending October 22. This figure surpasses the 2019 average by 16%, signaling a fully recovered housing market. Manhattan leads boroughs with nearly 35% growth over pre-pandemic sales, followed by Queens with a 4.5% increase, while Brooklyn trails slightly below its baseline.

Rental Market Sees Increased Availability

Rental vacancies rose by 324 units, reaching 15,975 available residences citywide, raising the rental inventory index from 86 to 87 out of 100. Brooklyn experienced the largest weekly increase at 6.25%, compared to Manhattan’s 0.43% rise and a slight 0.1% decrease in Queens.

Subway Ridership Edges Upward

Average daily subway ridership climbed slightly to 3.21 million riders, reducing the gap to 35.2% below pre-pandemic levels. This improvement nudged the subway mobility index to 65 out of 100. However, more sustained growth is essential to regain pre-pandemic ridership figures.

Restaurant Reservations Show Modest Growth

Restaurant bookings increased marginally, with reservations now 32.5% below their pre-pandemic peak, improving from 32.9% the previous week. This places the restaurant reservation index at 67.5 out of 100. Despite gains, NYC eateries still face a significant shortfall in customer volume compared to before the pandemic.

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