NYC Economic Recovery Index October 2022: Hospitalizations Rise, Home Sales Dip, Subway Use Drops

Monitoring New York City's economic rebound amid ongoing pandemic challenges

Editor's update: This report presents week 110 of the NYC Recovery Index, originally published October 11, 2022. For the most current data, visit the NYC Recovery Index homepage.

During the week ending October 1, 2022, New York City's economic recovery plateaued, with the overall recovery index holding steady at 76 out of 100. After weeks of steady progress, COVID-19 hospitalizations surged sharply, reversing prior improvements. Meanwhile, home sales and rental vacancies declined, and subway ridership experienced a significant downturn. On a positive note, unemployment claims continued their downward trend, and restaurant reservations saw a modest increase.

The NYC Recovery Index, a collaboration between Investopedia and NY1, currently rates the city's economic recovery at 76% of pre-pandemic levels. More than two years into the pandemic, New York City has regained over three-quarters of its economic activity.

COVID-19 Hospitalizations Climb Again

The city saw a notable increase in COVID-19 hospitalizations, averaging 87 daily admissions—14 more than the previous week. This uptick marks a reversal after two months of decline, with hospitalization rates returning to levels last seen in early September.

The CDC reports that nearly all current infections are Omicron variants. The BA.5 strain accounts for approximately 74.9% of cases, BA.4.6 represents 15.7%, and the emerging BF.7 variant now comprises 5.7% of infections.

As of October 10, 79.7% of NYC residents were fully vaccinated, according to NYC Health & Hospitals. Since the pandemic began, the city has recorded nearly 2.9 million COVID-19 cases and 42,071 deaths.

Unemployment Claims Continue to Decline

Unemployment insurance claims fell for a second consecutive week, totaling 5,200—a decrease of 460 claims from the prior week. Compared to the pre-pandemic average of 5,083 claims for the same period in 2019, current claims are just over 2% higher, indicating steady progress toward full labor market recovery.

Home Sales Experience a Pullback

Pending home sales dropped by 57 units to 389 for the week ending October 1. Although the pre-pandemic average for this week in 2019 rose slightly to 361, current sales remain 7% above that benchmark, down from 26% above last week. Queens led the boroughs with home sales 27.5% above pre-pandemic levels, followed by Manhattan at 9.9% and Brooklyn at 3.5%.

Rental Vacancies Shrink

Rental availability declined by 429 units to 15,696 citywide, with the rental inventory index falling to 86.6 from 88. Brooklyn saw the sharpest drop at 5.4%, while Manhattan and Queens experienced smaller decreases of 1.2% and 0.35%, respectively. Overall, rental vacancies declined 2.7% compared to the previous week.

Subway Ridership Faces Setback

Subway ridership fell sharply, reaching 38% below its pre-pandemic rolling average, down from 35% the previous week. This decline signals a stalled recovery for transit usage during the fall season. The MTA reported a seven-day average of 2.96 million daily riders.

Restaurant Reservations Show Slight Uptick

Citywide restaurant reservations improved marginally, with a seven-day rolling average 35.1% below pre-pandemic levels, a slight improvement from 35.6% the prior week. Although this suggests a modest positive trend for the dining sector, significant gains remain uncertain.

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