NYC Economic Recovery Status November 2022: Index at 76/100 with Rising Hospitalizations and Market Shifts

Monitoring New York City's Economic Rebound Amidst COVID-19 Challenges

Editor's Update: This report covers the 115th week of the NYC Recovery Index, originally published November 15, 2022. For the most current information, visit the NYC Recovery Index homepage.

As of the week ending November 5, 2022, New York City's economic recovery remains steady with an index score of 76 out of 100, indicating it is over three-quarters recovered compared to pre-pandemic levels. However, the sharp uptick in COVID-19 hospitalizations raises concerns about the city's health trajectory.

Unemployment claims have decreased slightly, aligning closely with 2019 averages, while citywide home sales have rebounded above pre-pandemic figures after a recent dip. Rental availability surged to its highest point since August 2021, nearing pre-pandemic benchmarks. Conversely, subway ridership experienced a decline, and restaurant reservations saw a significant drop.

The NYC Recovery Index, a collaboration between Investopedia and NY1, quantifies the city's progress toward economic normalcy, currently positioned at 76/100.

COVID-19 Hospitalizations Surge Again

After a brief plateau, COVID-19 hospitalizations climbed sharply this week, averaging 139 daily admissions—an increase of 28 from the previous week and the highest since late July. This rise signals a concerning setback in the city's health recovery.

Hospitalization rates are now over 300% higher than the same week in 2021, with ICU admissions up 10.8% year-over-year, underscoring a decline in health conditions compared to last year. Historically, November has been challenging, with spikes in cases and hospitalizations in 2020 and 2021. The impact of these trends in 2022 remains to be seen.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports that 100% of current cases are from the Omicron variant, with the BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 subvariants dominating at 31.4% and 28.5% respectively, while the BA.5 variant's prevalence has diminished to under 20%.

Vaccination rates remain stable at 79.9% fully vaccinated residents. Since the pandemic's onset, NYC has recorded nearly 3 million cases and just under 43,000 COVID-19 related deaths.

Unemployment Claims Continue to Decline

Unemployment insurance claims dropped by 50 to 5,550 for the week ending November 5, closely mirroring the 2019 rolling average of 5,280 claims. This small margin above pre-pandemic levels suggests a near-complete recovery in employment claims.

Home Sales Recover Above Pre-Pandemic Levels

Home sales increased by 4.9% over the 2019 average, regaining full recovery status after a recent dip. Despite this, sales remain below summer peaks, likely impacted by rising mortgage rates. Brooklyn leads with sales 12% above 2019 averages, while Manhattan is 5.2% above, and Queens trails nearly 10% below pre-pandemic levels.

Rental Market Availability Hits Highest Since August 2021

Rental vacancies rose by 890 units to 16,922, marking the strongest availability since August 2021. The rental inventory index scored 96 out of 100, just 4% shy of pre-pandemic norms. This unexpected seasonal increase may signal a full recovery in the rental market if trends continue.

Subway Ridership Sees First Decline in Five Weeks

The MTA reported a slight decrease in subway ridership, with a seven-day average 34.2% below pre-pandemic levels, down from 33.7% the prior week. This marks a pause after four weeks of gains. The impact of colder weather on ridership remains to be observed as winter approaches.

Restaurant Reservations Experience Significant Drop

Restaurant bookings fell sharply to 36.7% below pre-pandemic levels, reversing three weeks of growth and returning to early October figures. The data suggests a weaker Halloween period for dining out, with potential for recovery in upcoming weeks.

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