New York City Economic Recovery Index: November 22 Update

Monitoring NYC's resurgence from the COVID-19 crisis

Editor's update: This is the 66th weekly release of the NYC Recovery Index, initially published on November 23, 2021. For the freshest figures, visit the NYC Recovery Index homepage.

New York City's economic recovery index edged upward, reaching a score of 81 by November 13. This marks the fifth consecutive week that the index surpassed the 80-point threshold. Increases in restaurant bookings and subway usage, coupled with a drop in unemployment claims, helped elevate the score. Conversely, declining home sales and a rise in COVID-19 hospitalizations tempered growth.

Despite growing vaccination rates statewide, mandates have led to shortages in critical roles, including nurses and educators. Nationwide, about 90% of federal employees are projected to have received at least one vaccine dose by the upcoming Monday deadline set by President Joe Biden's September executive order.

The NYC Recovery Index, a collaboration between Investopedia and NY1, places New York City's recovery at 81 out of 100. Over 18 months into the pandemic, the city's economy has regained just over 80% of its pre-pandemic activity from early March 2020.

COVID-19 Hospitalizations Experience Slight Increase

As of November 13, the seven-day rolling average of COVID-19 hospitalizations rose to 36 per 100,000 residents, up by three from the previous week. Although this figure is significantly lower than springtime peaks, it remains approximately 60% higher than rates recorded at June's end.

The CDC reports that nearly 99.9% of new COVID-19 cases in the New York area, including neighboring states and territories, are linked to the delta variant. By November 23, New York City had documented 1,147,145 cases and 34,747 deaths.

New York State has fully vaccinated roughly 68.85% of its population as of November 22 and is on track to reach 70% full vaccination by late January. According to CDC data analyzed by Verywell, New York ranks 7th nationally in vaccination progress among states and territories.

Unemployment Claims Decline

Unemployment claims in NYC have decreased to about 38% above pre-pandemic levels as of November 13, improving markedly from 50% the previous week. This trend aligns with seasonal employment growth ahead of the holidays, marking one of the lowest claim rates since the pandemic began. Continued progress could signal further stabilization in the city's labor market.

Home Sales Decline

Pending home sales dropped by 38 units as of November 13, reversing gains from the prior week and causing a dip in the housing market subscore. Nevertheless, sales remain 48% higher than pre-pandemic figures, with 647 pending sales compared to 435 in 2019. Borough-wise, Manhattan sales rose by 58.3%, Brooklyn by 52.8%, and Queens by 50% relative to pre-pandemic levels.

Rental Market Inventory Shrinks

New York City's rental market saw a reduction of 105 available units as of November 13, lowering the rental index score from 89 to 88. A total of 15,384 rental properties were listed, down from 15,489 the previous week. Despite the slight decrease, the rental market remains one of the strongest index components, having effectively rebounded from pandemic lows.

Subway Ridership Hits New Milestone

Subway usage surged to 40% below pre-pandemic levels by November 13, the first time since the pandemic started that ridership improved beyond the 50% threshold. This uptick reflects rising vaccination rates and more employees returning to workplaces. The Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) reported a seven-day trailing average nearing 2.83 million riders on public transit.

Restaurant Reservations Climb

The restaurant reservation index improved significantly, moving from 45% to 36% below 2019 levels as of November 13, based on OpenTable data. This represents the highest score since the pandemic began and ends a months-long plateau near the 50% mark. Should this momentum continue, the city could approach full recovery in dining activity, weather permitting.

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