New York City Economic Recovery Index: August 8 Update

Monitoring New York City's post-pandemic economic resurgence

Editor's note: This report presents the 101st weekly update of the NYC Recovery Index, initially released on August 9, 2022. For the most current statistics, visit the NYC Recovery Index homepage.

During the week ending July 30, 2022, New York City's economic recovery experienced a slight setback, with the index dipping by one point to a score of 72 out of 100. This decline was largely influenced by a notable decrease in the unemployment claims subindex. On a positive note, the city saw reductions in COVID-19 hospitalizations, a rise in home sales, and a modest increase in restaurant reservations. Conversely, rental vacancy rates fell citywide, and subway ridership showed a minor downward trend.

The New York City Recovery Index, a collaborative effort between Investopedia and NY1, currently places the city's economic recovery at 72 out of 100. More than two years into the pandemic, NYC has reclaimed nearly 75% of its pre-pandemic economic activity.

COVID-19 Hospitalizations Continue to Decline

For the second consecutive week, COVID-19 hospitalizations in New York City decreased, averaging 130 patients daily—23 fewer than the prior week. This decline follows six straight weeks of increases and signals encouraging progress in the city's health recovery. However, hospitalization levels remain significantly elevated, currently over seven times higher than the early March post-winter wave low of 18 daily cases.

The CDC reports that 100% of new COVID-19 cases in the New York area are linked to Omicron variants. The BA.5 subvariant dominates with 86.9% of new infections, followed by BA.4.6 and BA.4 subvariants at 6.3% and 5.2%, respectively. Vaccination rates continue to improve, with 79.2% of NYC residents fully vaccinated, according to NYC Health & Hospitals data. Since the pandemic began, the city has recorded over 2.75 million confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases and 41,257 deaths.

Unemployment Claims Surpass 2019 Levels

Unemployment insurance claims dropped to 6,070 during the week ending July 30, down by 530 from the previous week. Despite this decrease, the unemployment claims subindex fell by 12.5 percentage points, slipping below full recovery. This shift is due to a larger decline in claims during the comparable week in 2019, with current claims approximately 14% above the pre-pandemic baseline. The city's labor market continues to fluctuate, with claims hovering near pre-pandemic averages.

Home Sales Achieve Full Recovery

Pending home sales across NYC's five boroughs rose by 38 to a total of 484 for the week ending July 30. In contrast, the 2019 rolling average for the same week decreased by 14 to 434 sales. This places the home sales subindex firmly in full recovery territory, with sales 11.6% above pre-pandemic levels. Brooklyn leads with home sales 17.3% higher than its pre-pandemic average, while Queens and Manhattan exceed their benchmarks by 8.5% and 5.4%, respectively.

Rental Vacancies Decline

Rental vacancies in New York City decreased for the second straight week, totaling 15,757 units available during the week ending July 30—a drop of 241 from the prior week. Consequently, the rental inventory subindex fell to 80 out of 100, with rental availability still trailing pre-pandemic figures by several thousand units. The rental market's momentum from June and early July appears to be waning during a period that typically sees increased availability.

Vacancy changes varied by borough: Brooklyn experienced the largest decline at 3.3%, Manhattan saw a 1.3% decrease, while Queens bucked the trend with a 2.8% rise in available rentals.

Subway Ridership Experiences Slight Decline

Subway ridership decreased for the second week in a row, though the pace of decline slowed. The seven-day average ridership was 39.9% below pre-pandemic levels, compared to 39.2% the previous week, resulting in a subway mobility subindex score of 60.1 out of 100. Ridership remains near the pre-Omicron levels seen in November 2021. The MTA reported an average of 2.70 million daily riders for the week ending July 30.

Restaurant Reservations Show Minor Improvement

Restaurant bookings in NYC edged up slightly during the week ending July 30, improving to 37.7% below pre-pandemic levels from 39.9% the week before. The restaurant reservations subindex held steady at 62 out of 100. This modest change follows significant fluctuations in recent weeks, ranging from a low of 43.1% below average to a high of 25.4% below. Over two years into the pandemic, the city still sees over one-third fewer diners than before COVID-19.

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