Isaac Asimov's Vision of the Future: What He Predicted for 2019 That Came True and What Didn't

Isaac Asimov, one of the most influential science fiction authors, made several remarkable predictions about the future nearly four decades ago. His foresight about the year 2019 offers a unique lens through which we can evaluate the progress of humanity.

In the early 1980s, as the world approached the year 1984—a date famously depicted in George Orwell's dystopian novel—Canada's The Star magazine invited Asimov to write a forward-looking article envisioning life 35 years ahead. This choice was symbolic, marking the same interval between Orwell's publication and the present.

Now that 2019 has passed, we have the opportunity to assess how accurate Asimov’s predictions were.

Predictions That Came True

Asimov highlighted three major concerns humanity would face by 2019:

1. The threat of nuclear war.
2. The rise of widespread computerization.
3. The expansion into outer space.

Regarding nuclear war, Asimov acknowledged the tense Cold War atmosphere between the United States and the Soviet Union, which brought the world close to disaster. Despite this, he chose optimism:

"If the United States and the Soviet Union continue their hostilities, discussing life in 2019 becomes futile. Only a few of us, our children, and grandchildren would survive, making detailed descriptions of global suffering pointless. Therefore, let us assume there will be no nuclear war." – Isaac Asimov

His faith in avoiding nuclear catastrophe allowed him to focus on other developments.

1. The Era of Mass Computerization

Asimov confidently predicted that by 2019, society would be inseparable from computers, which would permeate industries, economies, and households alike.

"Countries lagging in computer technology will suffer so evidently that their governments will demand computerization just as they now demand weapons." – Isaac Asimov

This vision has undeniably come to pass: personal computers and smart devices are now common even in developing regions worldwide.

2. Disappearance of Certain Jobs

He foresaw that automation and computerization would render many professions obsolete, especially those involving repetitive or clerical tasks.

"Before the Industrial Revolution, most people worked in agriculture. The shift from farm to factory was swift and painful. The transition from factory work to something new, driven by computerization, will be even faster and more challenging." – Isaac Asimov

This prediction rings true as numerous roles like telephone operators and stenographers have vanished, with many more expected to follow due to automation.

3. Transformation of Education

Asimov anticipated a fundamental shift in education, emphasizing computer literacy and personalized learning over traditional methods.

He predicted that by 2019, computers might replace teachers, enabling children to learn at home at their own pace and according to their interests.

While not fully realized, the rise of online schooling and digital learning platforms indicates this trend is well underway.

4. Growing Environmental Challenges

"Human irresponsibility regarding waste and pollution will lead to increasingly severe ecological problems. Hopefully, technological progress by 2019 will provide tools to reverse environmental damage." – Isaac Asimov

The first part of this prediction is evident as environmental issues have escalated globally. However, effective technological solutions to fully reverse the damage remain elusive.

Predictions Yet to Materialize (But Possibly Still Ahead)

Some of Asimov’s forecasts have not yet come to fruition but may still be realized in the future.

1. Robots in Every Home

Asimov expected that robots—mobile, computerized machines—would become household staples by 2019.

While fully autonomous robots are not yet common in homes, devices like robotic vacuum cleaners and smart appliances hint at this future.

2. Successful Space Colonization

He envisioned humanity returning to the Moon with large inhabited stations mining resources and producing materials for further space construction. He also predicted orbital factories to reduce Earth's pollution and massive solar power stations transmitting energy back to Earth.

These ambitious goals remain unrealized, with space exploration progressing more slowly than anticipated.

3. Global Peace and Cooperation

"Growing global challenges will compel nations and groups to cooperate—not out of idealism, but from the cold realization that lack of collaboration means extinction for all." – Isaac Asimov

Although international cooperation exists, the vision of a unified global government or widespread harmony has yet to be achieved.

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