Liverpool vs Crystal Palace: Does Winning the Community Shield Predict Premier League Success?
Examining historical data on Community Shield outcomes to determine if winning the curtain-raiser at Wembley forecasts a strong Premier League campaign.
Premier League champions Liverpool face FA Cup winners Crystal Palace in the 2025 Community Shield at Wembley. But does lifting this trophy signal a successful season ahead?
Do Community Shield winners often win the Premier League?
In the Premier League era only eight of the 33 Community or Charity Shield winners have gone on to claim the league title in the same season. Five of those successes occurred between 2005 and 2010. Manchester City in 2019 and Sir Alex Ferguson’s Manchester United in 2011 were the most recent examples.
Since 1992, teams that lost the Shield have actually gone on to win the league on 10 occasions, including City three years running from 2021 to 2023. Notably, 45% of eventual champions did not feature in the Shield, while 55% of Shield winners finished above the runners-up.
Have Premier League champions dominated the Shield?
Premier League winners have claimed the Shield 18 times out of 33 (55%). However, FA Cup winners have broken that pattern recently, winning seven of the last 11 matches—compared to just five in the previous 22 editions. On three occasions neither league nor cup holders lifted the Shield, as Arsenal (1999, 2023) and Manchester United (2010) did so after qualifying as league runners-up.
Do Shield goalscorers enjoy standout seasons?
Community Shield scorers have seen mixed fortunes. In 2023, Cole Palmer opened his Manchester City account in the Shield but later scored 22 Premier League goals—though for Chelsea after a transfer. Conversely, Erling Haaland failed to score in his City debut but finished the season with 52 league goals.
Darwin Núñez and Kelechi Iheanacho had modest returns after early Shield goals, while Raheem Sterling’s winner in 2019 sparked his most prolific campaign with 31 goals.
Historically, succeeding in the Community Shield has been a poor indicator of Premier League glory, with less than a quarter of Shield winners going on to lift the title.
This topic was reported by BBC Sport.
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