Market Outlook This Week: Earnings, Jobs, Inflation, and GDP Insights

Upcoming highlights: Earnings from Amazon, ExxonMobil, and Eli Lilly, September employment statistics, Consumer Spending Inflation updates, and GDP data.

Essential Highlights

• The September jobs report, releasing Friday, is critical as the Federal Reserve evaluates labor market conditions ahead of its next policy meeting.
• Investors will analyze the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report and the preliminary third-quarter GDP numbers. Housing market and manufacturing sector data will also be released.
• Major earnings announcements are expected from leading technology giants such as Google, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon, alongside pharmaceutical companies, restaurant chains, and oil producers.

This week presents a packed schedule of economic data and corporate earnings, with the spotlight on the Friday release of the September jobs report, a pivotal indicator for the Federal Reserve’s assessment of the labor market. Additionally, earnings reports from Big Tech, pharma, and energy sectors will provide insights into corporate performance.

Key economic data includes the PCE inflation report on Thursday and the initial estimate of third-quarter GDP on Wednesday.

Among the anticipated earnings are Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Apple (AAPL), and Amazon (AMZN). Energy sector leaders ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and BP (BP) will also report. Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) and Starbucks (SBUX) will share their first quarterly results under new leadership.

Market participants will also review multiple housing market indicators and manufacturing activity surveys. Federal Reserve officials will observe a communications blackout ahead of their upcoming meeting.

Monday, October 28

• Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (October)
• Earnings: Ford Motor (F), Onsemi (ON)

Tuesday, October 29

• Advance Retail Inventories (September)
• Advance Wholesale Inventories (September)
• Advance International Trade Deficit (September)
• S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (August)
• FHFA House Price Index (August)
• Job Openings (September)
• Consumer Confidence (October)
• Earnings: Google (GOOG, GOOGL), Visa (V), Novartis (NVS), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), McDonald's (MCD), Pfizer (PFE), Chipotle (CMG), British Petroleum (BP), PayPal Holdings (PYPL), Waste Management (WM)

Wednesday, October 30

• ADP Employment Report (October)
• Gross Domestic Product - First Estimate (Q3)
• Pending Home Sales (September)
• Earnings: Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Eli Lilly (LLY), AbbVie (ABBV), Caterpillar (CAT), Amgen (AMGN), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Starbucks (SBUX)

Thursday, October 31

• Initial Jobless Claims (Week ended Oct. 19)
• Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (September)
• Earnings: Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Mastercard (MA), Merck (MRK), Anheuser-Busch (BUD), Uber (UBER), Comcast (CMCSA), ConocoPhillips (COP), Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), Intel (INTC)

Friday, November 1

• U.S. Employment Report (October)
• S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)
• ISM Manufacturing PMI (October)
• Construction Spending (September)
• Earnings: ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX)

September Jobs Report, Inflation, and GDP Data Take Center Stage

Market participants will closely monitor several pivotal economic indicators this week, including the highly anticipated September jobs report, fresh inflation data via the PCE index, initial third-quarter GDP estimates, and comprehensive housing and manufacturing statistics.

The September employment report, due Friday, arrives as Federal Reserve officials have expressed vigilance regarding labor market trends following a robust September performance. This data is crucial ahead of the Fed’s November 6-7 meeting, where interest rate decisions will be made. A weaker labor report could prompt more aggressive rate cuts than currently expected. Earlier weekly reports on private-sector hiring and job openings may also influence market sentiment.

Thursday’s PCE inflation release will reveal if inflationary pressures continued easing in September. Some Fed policymakers remain cautious about reducing rates prematurely before inflation aligns with the 2% target.

Wednesday’s initial third-quarter GDP estimate will provide an early view of economic growth, complemented by housing market updates such as pending home sales and home price indices. Manufacturing sector health will be highlighted through Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surveys.

Federal Reserve officials will maintain a communications blackout this week ahead of the policy meeting.

Big Tech, Energy, and Pharma Drive Earnings Spotlight

This week’s earnings calendar features major reports from technology leaders, energy giants, and pharmaceutical companies, alongside updates from financial institutions and restaurant chains.

Alphabet, Google’s parent company, will report third-quarter results Tuesday, aiming to build on a strong second quarter fueled by its investments in artificial intelligence (AI).

Microsoft’s Wednesday earnings will showcase progress in AI integration, including the launch of autonomous AI agents within its Copilot assistant software. Meta Platforms will also report Wednesday, expected to highlight advancements in AI products such as its Ray-Ban Meta AI glasses.

Apple’s Thursday report follows a recent record stock high and the launch of its AI-enhanced iPad Mini, mirroring features introduced in the iPhone 16.

Amazon’s third-quarter earnings, also on Thursday, come after a revenue forecast that fell short of expectations, despite record sales during its October Prime Big Deals Days event.

Pharmaceutical companies including Eli Lilly, AbbVie, Pfizer, Merck, Novartis, and Bristol Myers Squibb will release financial results this week. Energy sector earnings feature ExxonMobil and Chevron on Friday, with BP and ConocoPhillips reporting earlier.

Credit card companies Mastercard and Visa will provide insights into consumer spending trends in their earnings reports.

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