Assessing Chicago's Crime Rates Amid Presidential Criticism

President Donald Trump has repeatedly described Chicago as a “killing field”, “hell hole” and “the murder capital of the world”, and has vowed to deploy the National Guard to “solve the crime problem fast”.

These comments follow similar claims about rising crime in Washington DC, despite official data showing declines. Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker has rejected federal intervention, saying, “We have our job, which is to fight violent crime on the streets of our city, and by the way, we’re succeeding.”

INLIBER Verify examined FBI and local police figures to gauge Chicago’s crime trends and compare them with other US cities.

Violent crime is on the decline

According to FBI data, Chicago recorded around 540 violent crimes per 100,000 residents in 2024. With a city population of approximately 2.7 million and nearly 10 million in the wider metro area, this category includes homicide, rape, robbery and aggravated assault.

Last year’s violent crime rate was 11% lower than in 2023 and about half the pre-pandemic level. Among US cities with over 500,000 inhabitants, Chicago ranked 29th out of 37 for violent crime, behind New York, Los Angeles and Washington DC. Memphis, Detroit and Baltimore topped the list, each exceeding 1,500 violent crimes per 100,000 people.

The Chicago Police Department (CPD) also reported a more than 20% drop in violent crime compared with the same period last year.

Homicide trends in Chicago

After the US Labor Day weekend, President Trump posted on Truth Social that “at least 54 people were shot in Chicago over the weekend, 8 people were killed”. Local outlets widely cited these figures.

CPD preliminary data shows 278 homicides by the end of August, nearly one-third fewer than a year earlier. In 2024, the CPD recorded 591 homicides (including murder and manslaughter), while the FBI logged 461. The discrepancy arises from under-reporting by the CPD in recent years. FBI figures ranked Chicago highest in homicides among US cities last year.

Homicides have fallen significantly since the 1990s peak of over 900 annually. Last year, the homicide rate stood at about 17 per 100,000 people, down from 19 in 2023 and 23 in 2022.

How Chicago compares

Using FBI data, INLIBER Verify found Chicago ranked 10th among 37 US cities with more than 500,000 residents by homicide rate. If CPD’s higher figure is used, Chicago would rank seventh. Memphis led the 2024 ranking with 41 homicides per 100,000, followed by Baltimore with 35.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt asserted that Chicago “has had the highest murder rate among US cities” for seven consecutive years, citing a Rochester Institute of Technology study. However, the study’s broader sample of 24 cities placed Chicago eighth for homicide rate in both 2023 and 2024.

Experts caution against simplistic city rankings. Adam Gelb of the Council on Criminal Justice notes that spikes in crime can shape perceptions, while differences in reporting methods and city boundaries complicate comparisons. The FBI also warns against creating rankings from its statistics.

What should INLIBER Verify investigate next?

Despite political rhetoric, Chicago’s violent crime and homicide rates have declined in recent years, ranking it mid-range among large US cities.

This topic was reported by BBC News.

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