Polymarket’s $3.7 Billion Election Prediction Success in 2020: What’s Next for Online Betting Markets?

Colin is an Associate Editor specializing in technology and financial news. With over three years of experience in editing, proofreading, and fact-checking current events in finance and politics, he holds an M.A. in journalism from The New School and a B.A. in history and political science from McGill University.

Key Insights

• Shayne Coplan, CEO of Polymarket, highlights the 2020 election results as a powerful validation of the platform’s forecasting capabilities.
• Polymarket saw nearly $3.7 billion in contracts traded this year related to the presidential election outcome.
• The platform plans to expand into the U.S. market, leveraging Trump’s pro-crypto and deregulation policies to boost the emerging online betting industry.

On election night in 2020, President-elect Donald Trump wasn’t the only one claiming victory. Online prediction markets, led by Polymarket, accurately forecasted his win well before official announcements.

As polls closed, Polymarket initially set Trump’s chances at 58%, which surged to 95% by 11:43 p.m. ET—hours before major news outlets called the race.

"The Trump campaign headquarters reportedly learned about their victory through Polymarket," shared Shayne Coplan, the platform’s founder and CEO, on social media early Wednesday.

In the weeks leading to the election, prediction markets consistently favored Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris, with odds reaching 67% to 33%, contrasting with traditional polls that showed tight races within key swing states.

Validation of Prediction Markets’ Accuracy

Coplan described the election outcome as a "vindication" of Polymarket’s predictive power, calling it "the most precise method to track election developments." This marked the first U.S. election where Americans could legally bet on results, following a landmark court ruling that allowed platforms like Kalshi to offer event contracts.

Major brokers such as Interactive Brokers and Robinhood also launched election betting markets, with over 220 million contracts placed by election day.

Despite regulatory pushback—including proposed bans on election contract trading and concerns about market manipulation—Polymarket maintains that criticisms about disproportionate influence by large bettors are unfounded. Coplan emphasized the peer-to-peer nature of the platform, where large positions on one candidate are balanced by opposing bets.

The Road Ahead for U.S. Political Betting

Looking forward, Coplan is optimistic that the success of this election’s prediction markets will help shift public perception and acceptance of market-based election insights.

With nearly $3.7 billion wagered on Polymarket during the election cycle, the platform aims to officially launch in the U.S., capitalizing on a regulatory environment more favorable under the incoming Trump administration.

Given Polymarket’s blockchain foundation and strong ties to cryptocurrency communities, Trump’s promises to reduce SEC restrictions and promote crypto innovation could accelerate growth in the online prediction market space.

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