Marriott Stock Falls to $128 in 2019 After Disappointing Q2 Revenue Results

Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) experienced a decline in stock price on Tuesday morning after reporting earnings per share (EPS) of $1.56, meeting expectations, but falling short on second quarter revenues, which totaled $5.3 billion. This figure represents a nearly 2% decrease year-over-year, with global properties hitting the lower end of projected revenue ranges. As a result, Marriott adjusted its fiscal year 2019 EPS guidance downward by approximately 2.5%.

The company's performance highlights challenges faced by American brands abroad amid ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties. While firms like Apple Inc. (AAPL) have seen significant drops in Chinese sales, other global brands such as McDonald's Corporation (MCD) continue to attract strong international customer bases, demonstrating the resilience of some exports despite political headwinds.

Marriott’s international bookings remain supported by a business clientele focused on profitability rather than politics. However, economic indicators like the rising bond market suggest increasing recession risks, which could reduce travel demand among both business and leisure customers, potentially impacting Marriott's future earnings.

MAR Stock Long-Term Performance (1998 – 2019)

Since its initial public offering in March 1998, Marriott’s stock has experienced significant volatility. After debuting in the mid-teens, the share price dropped to single digits by October 1998. A recovery phase peaked at $25.25 in May 2001 but was followed by a downturn hitting four-year lows in 2002. The stock then rebounded during the mid-2000s bull market, reaching the low $50s by Q2 2007.

The 2008 financial crisis caused a steep decline, pushing shares below previous support levels before bottoming just above the 1998 lows in November 2008. It took over five years for Marriott to regain those highs, culminating in a breakout to the mid-$80s by 2015. Post-2016 U.S. presidential election, the stock surged to an all-time high of $149 in January 2018 before retreating to a 17-month low in December 2018. The subsequent rally in 2019 approached previous highs but has recently stalled near this level, with the current pullback testing key harmonic support aligned with the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA).

Technical indicators show the monthly stochastic oscillator entered a buy phase in September 2018, reached overbought levels in April 2019, and has now shifted downward, signaling a potential sell cycle that may extend into Q4. However, sustained selling pressure would require a break below the Fibonacci retracement level, potentially opening the path toward the 50-month EMA near $107.

MAR Stock Short-Term Trends (2017 – 2019)

On-balance volume (OBV) analysis reveals consistent institutional buying until March 2018, followed by gradual selling pressure through March 2019. Since then, buying activity has been mixed and has recently declined, mirroring price fluctuations. This suggests a temporary pause rather than a major sell-off, with market participants closely watching support levels around $130.

Conclusion

Marriott’s flat Q2 revenue performance and lowered profit outlook for 2019 have led to a moderate stock decline, currently testing crucial support between $128 and $130. Investors should monitor these levels closely, as a break could signal further downside risk amid broader economic concerns.

Disclosure: The author held no positions in Marriott International, Inc. at the time of writing.

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