M&A Surge Expected in 2025 with Trump Presidency – Biggest Deals and Market Outlook

Key Insights for 2025 M&A Landscape

• Mergers and acquisitions are projected to rise significantly in 2025 under a Trump administration, reversing years of subdued activity caused by high interest rates and strict regulatory hurdles.
• Factors fueling this growth include cheaper capital due to anticipated interest rate cuts, a resilient economic environment, and a presidential approach favoring lighter antitrust enforcement.
• CEOs who previously hesitated are now revisiting strategic deals, signaling renewed confidence in the M&A market.

Prepare for a robust M&A rebound in 2025 as market conditions align favorably.

After several years of stagnation, including notable deal cancellations like JetBlue’s bid for Spirit Airlines and Kroger’s attempt to acquire Albertsons, the dealmaking climate is poised for change. The Federal Reserve’s expected rate cuts will reduce borrowing costs, while strong stock markets facilitate stock-based transactions.

Crucially, Donald Trump’s return to the presidency is anticipated to ease regulatory pressures. Under the Biden administration, antitrust scrutiny intensified, blocking more mergers than previous administrations and creating uncertainty for dealmakers.

New Leadership at FTC and Justice Department Signals M&A-Friendly Policies

Trump’s appointments, including Andrew Ferguson as FTC chairman and Gail Slater leading the Justice Department’s antitrust division, suggest a shift towards more traditional and less aggressive antitrust enforcement. Analysts from Morgan Stanley predict this will boost corporate confidence and invigorate deal activity.

During the Biden era, unpredictable regulatory outcomes kept many CEOs cautious. Now, with a more predictable and lighter regulatory framework, companies are reconsidering previously shelved mergers.

Three Years of M&A Slowdown Set to Reverse

The M&A market has been relatively muted over the past three years. In 2024, announced deals totaled over $1.4 trillion, a slight increase from 2023 but still below the peak of $2.62 trillion in 2021 when low interest rates and stimulus fueled a dealmaking boom.

Here are the five largest U.S. M&A deals announced in 2024 according to Dealogic, with only two completed to date:

1. General Electric Spins Off Vernova - $38.09 Billion

GE’s strategic split creating GE Vernova, focusing on power and wind energy, was the largest transaction of 2024.

2. Capital One’s $35.32 Billion Bid for Discover Financial Services

This all-stock deal aims to create a payments powerhouse serving over 100 million customers but awaits regulatory approval.

3. Synopsys’ $33.60 Billion Offer for Ansys

The chip design software company’s bid for simulation software leader Ansys remains pending.

4. Mars’ $29.91 Billion Takeover Attempt of Kellanova

The candy giant’s offer for the maker of Pop-Tarts and Pringles is under regulatory review.

5. Diamondback Energy’s $28.11 Billion Acquisition of Endeavor Energy Resources

This deal has closed, marking the latest major transaction in the energy sector.

With favorable economic conditions and a regulatory environment expected to be more supportive, 2025 is shaping up to be a landmark year for mergers and acquisitions in the U.S.

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