Discover the Oscar 2020 Winners Predicted by Cutting-Edge Mathematical Analysis
Explore how data-driven algorithms forecast the top contenders and winners of the 2020 Oscars, revealing trends and surprises in Hollywood’s biggest night.
The power of science meets Hollywood glamour!
Ben Zozmer, a renowned analyst from The Hollywood Reporter known for his spot-on Oscar predictions over recent years, has released his forecast for the 2020 Academy Awards. His approach leverages comprehensive historical data on past winners, nominations, and accolades from other prestigious film awards. This cutting-edge method employs advanced computer algorithms to analyze patterns, a technique that has proven highly accurate — notably, Zozmer flawlessly predicted all nominations in 2018.
This year, the "Best Picture" category posed the greatest challenge due to several statistical rules derived from past winners:
- Since the "Best Editing" category was introduced in 1934, no film has won Best Picture without also receiving a nomination for editing or acting;
- Since the Directors Guild of America Award's inception in 1948, every Best Picture winner has either won the DGA award or received an editing nomination;
- No non-English language film has ever won Best Picture;
- No film produced by a streaming service has yet claimed the top Oscar;
- No superhero or comic book movie has ever won Best Picture.
Interestingly, if "1917" wins, it would break the first rule. Similarly, "Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood" challenges the second, "Parasite" the third, "The Irishman" the fourth, and "Joker" the fifth. While these exceptions don’t eliminate these films from contention, they highlight evolving trends in the industry.
Best Picture Favorite: "1917"
"1917" is poised to make history as the first Best Picture winner with a title consisting solely of numbers. Bolstered by wins at the Golden Globes, BAFTA, and Guild awards for producers and directors, it stands as the frontrunner. However, "Parasite" and "Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood" remain strong contenders.
Best Director: Sam Mendes for "1917"
Over the past 17 years, every director who won the Directors Guild of America Award also secured the Oscar for Best Director. This trend is unlikely to break this year, with Sam Mendes receiving acclaim for his masterful direction of "1917," notably filming the movie in what appears to be one continuous shot. This meticulous craftsmanship is expected to be rewarded on Oscar night.
Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix
Historically, no actor has won or even been nominated for portraying a comic book character in the leading actor category (Heath Ledger’s posthumous Oscar for Joker was in a supporting role). Joaquin Phoenix is expected to continue his award-winning streak and claim this prestigious statue.
Best Actress: Renée Zellweger for "Judy"
Like Phoenix, Renée Zellweger has already garnered multiple awards this season. Statistical models assign her a 90% chance of winning, with her competitors trailing far behind.
Additional Key Predictions
- Best Supporting Actor – Brad Pitt for "Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood";
- Best Supporting Actress – Laura Dern for "Marriage Story";
- Best Original Screenplay – Han Jin-won and Bong Joon-ho for "Parasite";
- Best Adapted Screenplay – Taika Waititi for "Jojo Rabbit";
- Best Animated Feature – "Toy Story 4";
- Best Documentary Feature – "American Factory";
- Best International Feature Film – "Parasite";
- Best Production Design – "Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood";
- Best Cinematography – "1917";
- Best Film Editing – "Ford v Ferrari";
- Best Visual Effects – "Avengers: Endgame";
- Best Original Score – "Joker";
- Best Original Song – "(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again" from "Rocketman";
- Best Costume Design – "Little Women".
For a complete list of nominees, refer to the full article. The highly anticipated ceremony will take place on the night of February 9th to 10th.
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