Apple Stock Price Analysis 2025: Key Levels to Watch Amid 34% Tariff Impact

Essential Insights

• Apple's stock experienced a sharp decline in after-hours trading following the announcement of a sweeping 34% tariff on Chinese imports, directly impacting the company that manufactures nearly 90% of its products in China.
• Early trading on Thursday is expected to test the lower boundary of a descending price channel, signaling potential further downside.
• Investors should closely monitor key support levels at approximately $207 and $197, while resistance is anticipated near $237 and $247.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) faced significant selling pressure after the U.S. administration introduced a steep 34% tariff on goods imported from China, where the majority of Apple’s manufacturing takes place. This tariff could increase the retail price of Apple devices in the U.S. and potentially dampen sales in China if retaliatory measures are enacted.

Financial analysts from Morgan Stanley estimate that these tariffs could raise Apple's annual operational costs by $8.5 billion, potentially reducing profit margins by 7%.

Since the beginning of 2024, Apple shares have declined over 10%, trading about 14% below their December record high, largely due to trade policy uncertainties. After-hours trading saw shares drop 7% to around $208.

Below is a technical breakdown of Apple’s stock chart highlighting significant price levels to watch amid this tariff-related market turbulence.

Descending Channel and Technical Outlook

Following the December peak, Apple shares have been moving downward within a clearly defined descending channel. Recent buying interest emerged near the channel's lower trendline; however, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the 50 mark, indicating weak buying momentum.

Additionally, Apple’s 50-day moving average is on the verge of crossing below the 200-day moving average, forming a 'death cross'—a bearish signal that could indicate further declines. Early Thursday trading is expected to test this channel's lower boundary.

Critical Support Levels

The immediate support to watch is near $207, just below the anticipated opening price on Thursday. This level aligns with the descending channel’s lower trendline and the June 2023 pullback low, representing a potential buying zone.

If Apple closes decisively below $207, the next significant support is around $197, a level associated with prior consolidation before a breakout in mid-2023.

Key Resistance Levels

On the upside, resistance is expected near $237, positioned just below the upper boundary of the descending channel and corresponding with previous peaks in July and October 2023, as well as trading activity in early 2024.

Surpassing $237 could propel shares toward $247, where selling pressure may emerge near the February swing high and a minor retracement low close to the all-time record high.

Note: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

As of this article's publication, the author holds no positions in Apple Inc.

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