NYC Economic Recovery Index Update: August 29

Monitoring New York City's journey back from the COVID-19 crisis

Editor's note: This update presents the 104th week of the NYC Recovery Index, initially released on August 30, 2022. For the most current statistics, visit the NYC Recovery Index homepage.

For the week ending August 20, 2022, New York City’s economic recovery index climbed notably, reaching a score of 76 out of 100. This improvement was primarily fueled by a continued decline in COVID-19 hospitalizations, alongside increases in subway ridership and restaurant reservations, despite a minor drop in rental vacancy rates.

According to the collaborative NYC Recovery Index by Investopedia and NY1, the city stands approximately three-quarters recovered economically compared to pre-pandemic levels, scoring 76 out of 100.

COVID-19 Hospitalizations Continue to Decline

Hospitalizations due to COVID-19 dropped for the fifth consecutive week ending August 20, with a seven-day average falling to 110 from 115 the previous week. Despite this positive trend, hospitalization rates remain nearly six times higher than the low point recorded in early March.

The CDC reports that all new COVID-19 cases are linked to Omicron variants, predominantly the BA.5 subvariant, which accounts for 87.5% of cases. Lesser proportions are attributed to the BA.4.6 and BA.4 variants at 9.4% and 2.9%, respectively.

Currently, 79.5% of NYC residents are fully vaccinated against COVID-19, as per NYC Health & Hospitals data. Since the pandemic's onset over two and a half years ago, the city has documented nearly 2.8 million cases and 41,556 deaths.

Unemployment Claims Hold Steady

Unemployment insurance claims in NYC slightly increased by 450 to 6,440 for the week ending August 20. In contrast, the 2019 rolling average for the same period rose by 1,177 claims to 6,647, placing current claims 3.1% below pre-pandemic levels. This measure remains one of the strongest indicators of economic recovery, effectively considered fully restored.

Pending Home Sales Experience Minor Decline

Pending home sales saw a slight decrease, dropping by 63 to 428 for the week ending August 20. Despite this, sales remain 17.4% above 2019 figures, indicating ongoing strength in the housing market. Borough-wise, Queens leads with sales 19.2% above 2019 levels, followed by Brooklyn at 17% and Manhattan at 14.6%.

Rental Vacancy Rates Drop Again

Available rental units in NYC decreased by 469 to 16,514 for the week ending August 20, lowering the rental index score from 85 to 83. Although vacancies declined, current figures are still improved compared to June and July and remain just over a thousand units shy of pre-pandemic levels.

Subway Ridership Sees Uptick

Subway usage increased for the week ending August 20, with average daily ridership now 36.8% below 2019 levels, improving from 39.3% the previous week. This rise pushes the index score above 63, nearing the ridership peaks observed in May and June. The MTA reported an average of 2.66 million daily riders during this period. Monitoring ridership trends post-Labor Day will provide insights into potential further increases ahead of the holiday season.

Restaurant Bookings Climb Sharply

Restaurant reservations in NYC surged, reducing the gap to pre-pandemic levels from 38.8% below to just 32.3% below for the week ending August 20. This boost elevated the restaurant reservations index score to nearly 68, marking the highest level since early July and one of the largest weekly increases recorded. The city's dining scene now attracts more than two-thirds of its pre-pandemic patronage.

Similar upward trends were observed nationwide, with Los Angeles, Chicago, and Washington, D.C. also experiencing notable increases in restaurant reservations during the same week.

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