May 2025 Stock Market Preview: Inflation Data, Meme Stock Drops & Oil Demand Outlook

Market highlights for May 15, 2024

Investors are closely monitoring today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report to gauge inflation trends and potential Federal Reserve interest rate moves. After sharp gains earlier this week, meme stocks GameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment (AMC) are retreating in premarket trading. Meanwhile, retail sales growth is anticipated to have slowed in April, signaling a shift in consumer spending momentum. Solar tracker manufacturer Nextracker (NXT) shares are surging following an earnings beat. Additionally, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its 2024 oil demand growth forecast due to weakening consumption in Europe. U.S. stock futures are relatively flat as the market awaits key data releases. Here's what investors need to know right now.

1. CPI Forecast Shows Slight Inflation Cooling

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the April Consumer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. ET, with economists expecting a modest dip to 3.4% year-over-year inflation from 3.5% in March. However, recent wholesale inflation figures were higher than anticipated, raising concerns that inflation may remain sticky. Federal Reserve officials have emphasized the necessity of sustained inflation decline before considering interest rate cuts, making today’s data critical for monetary policy outlooks.

2. Meme Stocks GameStop and AMC Pull Back After Big Gains

Following explosive rallies earlier this week, GameStop shares dropped approximately 12% and AMC declined about 10% in premarket trading. Both stocks surged over 100% initially, fueled by a social media post from influencer “Roaring Kitty” after a three-year hiatus. The recent price spikes created significant pressure on short sellers, contributing to the earlier rally, but the pullback suggests profit-taking or market stabilization ahead of the open.

3. Retail Sales Growth Projected to Ease in April

Market analysts forecast a 0.4% rise in U.S. retail sales for April, a slowdown compared to March’s robust 0.7% increase. Consumer spending remains a critical driver of economic growth, and any softening could signal cautiousness among shoppers amid persistent inflation concerns. The Census Bureau will release the retail sales report alongside CPI data at 8:30 a.m. ET.

4. Nextracker Shares Soar on Strong Earnings

Solar technology firm Nextracker (NXT) saw shares jump 15% premarket after reporting fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of 96 cents per share, surpassing analyst expectations of 78 cents. The company highlighted a $4 billion order backlog for fiscal 2024, fueled by demand domestically and internationally, and projected fiscal 2025 net sales between $2.8 billion and $2.9 billion, up from $2.5 billion last year.

5. IEA Lowers Oil Demand Growth Forecast for 2024

The International Energy Agency revised its May 2024 oil demand growth forecast down to 1.1 million barrels per day, from 1.2 million barrels previously. This adjustment reflects reduced fuel consumption in OECD countries, particularly across Europe. Since gasoline prices impact U.S. inflation levels, this downward revision in oil demand could contribute to easing price pressures in coming months.

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