2025 Biden’s TikTok Ban Law: Potential $50B Forced Sale or Complete US Ban Explained

Essential Insights

• President Joe Biden enacted a law in 2024 compelling ByteDance to divest TikTok within one year via a forced sale, or else the app will be banned in the U.S., citing national security risks.
• Top tech giants like Microsoft and Oracle, along with investors such as former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, have emerged as possible TikTok buyers.
• Experts caution that any sale likely won't include TikTok's proprietary recommendation algorithm that drives its popular "For You" page.
• ByteDance is anticipated to legally contest the legislation, potentially delaying final outcomes regarding a forced sale or ban.
• Market analysts suggest Meta, Google, and Snap could benefit significantly from TikTok's exit or transformation in the U.S. market.

In a decisive move, President Joe Biden signed legislation that addresses national security concerns by requiring ByteDance to either sell TikTok within a year or face a ban in the United States.

Industry analysts have identified potential buyers and discussed the challenges of a sale without TikTok’s core algorithm, while also forecasting winners in this evolving scenario, including Meta Platforms (META), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Snap (SNAP).

Microsoft, Oracle, and High-Profile Investors Eye TikTok Acquisition

Though ByteDance’s willingness to sell remains uncertain, CFRA analysts lean toward a sale as the most plausible path forward. The biggest questions revolve around the sale price and potential buyers.

Several companies such as Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle (ORCL), Walmart (WMT), Rumble (RUM), and Twitter (now X under Elon Musk) have expressed interest amid the looming threat of a forced sale or ban.

Wedbush analysts highlight Microsoft and Oracle as logical buyers, referencing their past interest and strategic fit. However, UBS analysts believe regulators may restrict sales to traditional tech companies.

Private equity firms and notable figures—including former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, "Shark Tank" investor Kevin O'Leary, and former Activision CEO Bobby Kotick—have also shown interest in acquiring TikTok.

Sale Likely Excludes TikTok’s Algorithm, Analysts Warn

While a sale appears probable, experts emphasize that the deal might exclude TikTok’s recommendation algorithm, which powers the highly personalized "For You" feed critical to user engagement.

Wedbush analysts assert there is "no chance" TikTok would be sold with its algorithm, as neither Beijing nor ByteDance would permit such a transfer.

Without this algorithm, the platform's value could significantly diminish, potentially altering TikTok’s user experience and popularity in the U.S. market.

ByteDance Poised to Challenge Law in Court, Delaying Outcomes

The legislation is expected to face legal battles that could postpone the implementation of either a forced sale or ban, similar to previous state-level actions.

Wedbush analysts note a complex legal landscape ahead, especially with the upcoming presidential election intensifying stakes.

UBS analysts point out that the law’s design funnels disputes to the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals, limiting TikTok’s chances to stall proceedings. A former FCC commissioner cited by UBS reinforces that national security concerns typically prevail in such cases.

Meta, Google, and Snap Set to Capitalize on TikTok’s U.S. Exit

Whether through a ban or a sale that disrupts user experience, Meta, Alphabet’s Google, and Snap stand to gain market share and advertising revenue.

Wedbush forecasts Meta as the primary beneficiary if TikTok leaves the U.S., with Google ranked second. Their survey reveals 60% of TikTok users would switch to Facebook or Instagram, while 19% would prefer YouTube.

CFRA analysts also highlight Snap as a potential major winner, followed by Meta.

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