Uber Q2 FY 2021 Earnings Preview: Key Insights and Price Impact for 2021

Focus on Uber's Mobility Gross Bookings

Essential Highlights

• Analysts forecast EPS of -$0.46, an improvement from -$1.02 in Q2 FY 2020.
• Mobility gross bookings are projected to rise year-over-year, ending five consecutive quarters of decline.
• Revenue is anticipated to increase for the first time since Q1 FY 2020, signaling a recovery in Uber's ride-hailing segment.

Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER) is witnessing a resurgence in its core ride-hailing business after a significant downturn last year caused by COVID-19 lockdowns. Despite this recovery, Uber continues to expand its food delivery services, which thrived during the pandemic. In addition, Uber has broadened its delivery portfolio by adding grocery deliveries and forging partnerships with major retailers like Albertsons Companies Inc. (ACI) and Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST).

Investors eagerly await Uber’s Q2 FY 2021 earnings report on August 4, 2021, to evaluate the performance of its mobility, delivery, and freight divisions. Although analysts expect another quarterly loss per share, they predict a notable revenue increase—the first since early 2020.

A critical metric to watch is Uber’s mobility gross bookings, representing the total dollar amount generated by its ride-hailing business. This figure is expected to rise for the first time since late 2019, reflecting renewed demand as pandemic restrictions ease.

Over the past year, Uber’s stock has outperformed the broader market, particularly following positive developments such as the U.S. presidential election and encouraging COVID-19 vaccine news. However, the stock experienced a decline after its Q4 FY 2020 earnings report in February, narrowing its outperformance gap. Still, Uber’s shares have delivered a 43.7% total return over the past year, surpassing the S&P 500’s 35.4%.

Uber’s Earnings Track Record

Following its Q1 FY 2021 earnings release, Uber’s stock continued to decline despite reporting a narrower loss per share than expected. Revenue, however, missed estimates by 10.6%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of decline, though signs of increased ride-hailing demand emerged.

In Q4 FY 2020, Uber posted a slightly smaller loss per share than anticipated, but revenue fell 15.5% year-over-year, improving from steeper declines in previous quarters. The company highlighted the doubling of its delivery business during the pandemic as a key growth driver.

For Q2 FY 2021, analysts anticipate another loss per share but foresee revenue rising sharply by 95.3%, ending a streak of revenue declines that began in Q2 FY 2020.

Looking at the full fiscal year 2021, analysts predict a loss per share of $1.28—marking a third consecutive annual loss but the smallest to date—alongside a projected revenue growth of 41.4%, the fastest increase in at least four years.

Source: Visible Alpha

Key Performance Indicator: Mobility Gross Bookings

Investors will closely monitor Uber’s mobility gross bookings, which track the total dollar value generated by its ride-hailing services, including cars, motorbikes, and minibuses.

Gross bookings encompass the total transaction value, including taxes, tolls, and fees, across Uber’s mobility, grocery delivery, and freight businesses. While the pandemic severely impacted ride-hailing, the segment is rebounding due to vaccine rollouts and easing restrictions.

Before the pandemic, Uber’s mobility gross bookings grew 32.3% in FY 2018 and 19.7% in FY 2019. However, FY 2020 saw a 46.5% plunge as lockdowns suppressed demand. The decline continued into Q1 FY 2021 with a 37.7% drop compared to the prior year, marking five consecutive quarters of decline.

Analysts expect a strong rebound in Q2 FY 2021, projecting a 171.2% year-over-year increase in mobility gross bookings—the first rise since late 2019, albeit from a depressed base. For the full fiscal year, a 37.6% increase is forecast, though total gross bookings will likely remain below pre-pandemic levels.

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