Macy’s Stock Price Analysis 2025: Has the Multi-Year Decline Finally Reversed?

Investors looking for value are increasingly turning their attention to Macy's, Inc. (M), which has recently shown signs of recovery after hitting historic lows in early 2023. Despite challenges from competitors like Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) and the bankruptcy of J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (JCP), Macy's stock has rebounded twice at the critical $19.93 support level, suggesting the possibility of a fresh upward trend.

While the stock's recent gains have been influenced by heavy short covering following a sharp decline, the overall accumulation levels have reached unprecedented highs. However, the retail giant faces ongoing pressure as e-commerce continues to erode market share from traditional mall-based retailers, a trend accelerated by pandemic-driven shifts in consumer behavior.

Investors should watch for insights from Macy’s upcoming presentation at the Cowen retail conference, which is expected to shed light on current financial trends. The company recently reopened 68 stores in early May, reporting customer demand at roughly 50% of 2019 levels—surpassing expectations. Digital sales remain resilient, although detailed figures have not been disclosed.

Despite this optimism, Macy’s forecasts a challenging second quarter with revenues projected between $3.00 billion and $3.03 billion, falling short of analyst estimates near $3.38 billion, and anticipates an operating loss around $1 billion. With cash burn concerns mounting, the company is banking on a significant sales rebound in the latter half of 2024 to stabilize its financial position.

Long-Term Stock Performance (2007–2024)

Macy’s stock soared to mid-$40s in 2007 before plummeting during the 2008 financial crisis. It took several years to recover, peaking at an all-time high of $73.61 in July 2015. However, the stock failed to sustain this breakout, entering a downtrend marked by lower lows through November 2017. Attempts to rally in 2018 faltered at key Fibonacci retracement levels, and the stock eventually broke below its 2019 lows amid the pandemic downturn in 2020.

Recently, Macy's price action has bounced off historic lows near $19.93, signaling potential stabilization and the start of a new upward phase.

Short-Term Trends and Volume Analysis (2017–2024)

The on-balance volume (OBV) indicator reveals that accumulation peaked in 2018 before a distribution phase that ended in late 2019. Early 2020 buying momentum failed to sustain, leading to a sharp decline. Since then, strong buying and short covering have pushed OBV above previous highs, suggesting that Macy’s stock may have bottomed and entered a sustained uptrend.

Price gains have been slower to materialize but recently broke out of a $4.50 to $7.00 trading range and surpassed the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA). The next resistance level to watch is near the 200-day EMA around $12, with a significant resistance wall in the mid-teens that may require patience to overcome.

Final Thoughts

While Macy’s stock shows promising signs of reversing its long-term decline, the risk-reward balance remains cautious. Investors should carefully consider the company’s ongoing challenges and wait for clearer confirmation of sustained growth before committing.

Disclosure: The author holds no positions in Macy’s, Inc. at the time of writing.

Explore useful articles in Company News as of 13-06-2020. The article titled " Macy’s Stock Price Analysis 2025: Has the Multi-Year Decline Finally Reversed? " offers in-depth analysis and practical advice in the Company News field. Each article is carefully crafted by experts to provide maximum value to readers.

The " Macy’s Stock Price Analysis 2025: Has the Multi-Year Decline Finally Reversed? " article expands your knowledge in Company News, keeps you informed about the latest developments, and helps you make well-informed decisions. Each article is based on unique content, ensuring originality and quality.