July 2025 Market Outlook: Key Economic Data & Fed Insights Ahead

Upcoming this week: Independence Day market closures, June employment statistics, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's keynote, and detailed minutes from the Fed's June session.

Essential Highlights

• Markets will close early on Wednesday, July 3, and remain closed Thursday for the Independence Day holiday.
• The spotlight is on Friday’s June jobs report, amid a full week of labor market updates including job openings and private payroll figures.
• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will present key remarks, complemented by the Fed’s release of June meeting minutes.
• Constellation Brands will announce earnings, adding corporate insights to the week.

Despite the shortened trading week due to Independence Day, Friday’s U.S. employment report promises impactful data for investors. Earlier in the week, Powell’s speech at an international forum and the Fed's June meeting minutes will provide critical guidance on monetary policy direction.

Additional data on manufacturing and services sectors will also be released, while Constellation Brands reports fiscal Q1 2025 earnings.

Monday, July 1

• S&P U.S. Manufacturing PMI (June)
• Construction Spending (May)
• ISM Manufacturing Index (June)

Tuesday, July 2

• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks
• Job Openings Report (May)

Wednesday, July 3

• ADP Employment Report (June)
• Initial Jobless Claims (Week ending June 29)
• S&P U.S. Services PMI (June)
• ISM Services Index (June)
• Trade Deficit Data (May)
• Factory Orders (May)
• Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) June Meeting Minutes
• Constellation Brands (STZ) Earnings Release
• Remarks by New York Fed President John C. Williams
• Markets Close Early

Thursday, July 4

• Independence Day National Holiday – Markets Closed

Friday, July 5

• U.S. Employment Report (June)

Labor Market Data to Dominate Holiday-Shortened Week

While corporate event schedules remain light due to midweek market closures, key economic releases will drive investor focus. The June jobs report on Friday is particularly anticipated, following an unexpected addition of 272,000 jobs in May and a slight uptick in unemployment to 4%.

With inflationary pressures easing, Federal Reserve officials will closely analyze employment trends to inform future monetary policy. A surprising rise in unemployment could influence the Fed’s approach to interest rate adjustments.

Additional labor insights will come from Tuesday’s job openings report and Wednesday’s ADP private payroll data, providing a comprehensive view of the employment landscape.

On the corporate front, Constellation Brands' earnings release on Wednesday will be closely watched after strong revenue and sales results last quarter.

Federal Reserve Chair Powell's Comments and Meeting Minutes in Focus

Market participants will also monitor remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and New York Fed President John C. Williams at a European Central Bank conference, offering perspectives on economic conditions and policy outlook.

The Fed’s release of the June FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday is expected to shed further light on policymakers’ views regarding inflation, interest rates, and economic growth.

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