Jair Bolsonaro’s Conviction and the Uncertain Path Ahead
Former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro has been sentenced to 27 years for plotting a coup, but allies are already pushing for an amnesty that could reshape his political future.
In September 2018, during a campaign stop in Juiz de Fora, a man stabbed Jair Bolsonaro in the abdomen. Images of the former army captain grimacing in pain, wearing Brazil's football colours, spread widely across social media and television, bolstering his outsider appeal and boosting his support ahead of the election.
Seven years after his narrow victory, Brazil's Supreme Court has convicted Bolsonaro of plotting a coup, sentencing him to over 27 years in prison. While this verdict appears to end his presidential ambitions, allies are already exploring an amnesty that could pave the way for his return to politics.
The long road to power
Long dismissed as a fringe figure, Bolsonaro spent decades as a congressman known for incendiary remarks and praise for Brazil's 1964-85 military dictatorship. In July 2018, most political observers doubted he could win the presidency, citing his lack of party infrastructure and volatile rhetoric.
Yet the wave of public disillusionment after the 2013 protests, a deep recession and corruption scandals - most notably the Car Wash investigation that ensnared leaders across the spectrum - created fertile ground for Bolsonaro's anti-establishment message.
- What did the court convict him of and what comes next?
An outsider who changed everything
Bolsonaro capitalised on social media to unite disenchanted voters across the middle classes, conservative evangelicals and parts of the security forces. His pro-business agenda aligned with the Trump administration in the United States and other right-wing governments.
Environmental regulations were relaxed, leading to record Amazon deforestation and global criticism. But his most controversial stance came with the Covid-19 pandemic: he dismissed public health measures, branded the virus a "little flu" and promoted unproven treatments, delaying vaccine procurement and contributing to a death toll exceeding 700,000.
The president's nemesis
Bolsonaro’s efforts to sideline checks on his power repeatedly clashed with Brazil’s Supreme Court, particularly Justice Alexandre de Moraes. Appointed in 2020 to investigate disinformation campaigns, Moraes oversaw cases against Bolsonaro allies and blocked measures to ease gun laws and weaken pandemic restrictions.
The president’s public insults and threats toward Moraes and other justices escalated tensions, raising concerns about the stability of Brazil’s democratic institutions.
Conspiracy and election controversy
Following the annulment of former president Lula da Silva’s convictions in 2021, a rematch in 2022 sparked unfounded claims that electronic voting machines were vulnerable to fraud. Bolsonaro threatened to reject the result without paper ballots, and his government even deployed highways roadblocks in pro-Lula regions on election day.
Supreme Court orders, enforced by Moraes, cleared the way for Lula’s narrow victory, but the episode deepened national divisions and set the stage for post-election unrest.
Obstinance turns to violence
After losing, Bolsonaro stayed silent before quietly beginning a transition. Meanwhile, supporters blockaded roads and camped outside military barracks, demanding intervention to keep Lula from power. Plans to declare a state of emergency and overturn the election were thwarted when military chiefs refused to participate.
In January 2023, thousands of pro-Bolsonaro rioters stormed the Congress, Supreme Court and presidential palace in Brasília, in an assault later deemed part of a plot to overturn the democratic process.
The end of the line... for now
Back in Brazil, Bolsonaro’s party achieved significant gains in the 2024 local elections, but legal dangers mounted. Under house arrest since August 2025, he faces convictions on five counts including leading an armed conspiracy. He is barred from public office until 2060.
Yet his allies in Congress are drafting an amnesty proposal, and potential 2026 presidential hopefuls promise to pardon him if elected—a move likely to spark a constitutional crisis and test the resilience of Brazil’s judiciary.
Despite a 27-year sentence, Bolsonaro’s potential amnesty underlines the ongoing struggle over Brazil’s democratic future and the enduring power of his political movement.
This topic was reported by BBC News.
Explore useful articles in World News as of 12-09-2025. The article titled " Jair Bolsonaro’s Conviction and the Uncertain Path Ahead " offers in-depth analysis and practical advice in the World News field. Each article is carefully crafted by experts to provide maximum value to readers.
The " Jair Bolsonaro’s Conviction and the Uncertain Path Ahead " article expands your knowledge in World News, keeps you informed about the latest developments, and helps you make well-informed decisions. Each article is based on unique content, ensuring originality and quality.