How Organized Labor's 2023 Triumphs Could Ignite More Strikes in 2025

Highlights to Know

• 2023 marked the highest number of workdays lost to strikes since 2000.
• Several critical labor contracts will expire in 2024, increasing the likelihood of additional labor actions.
• Despite recent gains, unions represent only 6% of private-sector workers and face ongoing challenges.

The year 2023 saw a remarkable revival in organized labor activity, with landmark wins by auto workers, Teamsters, and screen actors inspiring unionized employees to maintain pressure on management in the upcoming year.

Labor economist Lawrence F. Katz from Harvard University notes, "The successes of the UAW, Teamsters, and others are likely to fuel continued activism and potential disputes, especially if the labor market remains robust."

Looking ahead, major contract expirations in 2024 include AT&T communications workers in April, Hollywood production crews in July, and dockworkers alongside Boeing machinists in September. There is speculation these strikes could even influence the presidential election.

While strikes may cause some consumer inconvenience and operational disruptions, their overall impact remains limited given that only 6% of private-sector employees are unionized—the lowest rate since record-keeping began in 1983, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Unions Gain Momentum After Years of Decline

Despite decades of setbacks, 2023 marked a turning point for unions. Prolonged strikes against General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis resulted in agreements granting assembly workers immediate 11% raises and a total 33% wage increase by 2028.

The United Auto Workers successfully eliminated many previous wage tiers and secured inclusion of new electric vehicle battery plants under national contracts, opening doors for further union organization.

Similarly, the Teamsters Union averted a strike at UPS by negotiating substantial pay raises, the addition of Martin Luther King Jr. Day as a holiday, elimination of forced overtime on days off, the removal of two-tier wage systems, and improved safety measures like air conditioning in trucks.

Other sectors such as Hollywood writers, healthcare, Las Vegas culinary workers, and Detroit casino employees also achieved important gains. Polls reveal strong public support, with over two-thirds of Americans backing organized labor and expecting unions to grow stronger.

What’s Driving This Surge in Labor Activism?

Former Labor Secretary Robert Reich attributes the revival to the stark inequalities highlighted by the pandemic, which exposed how much easier it is for the wealthy to weather crises compared to average workers, whose labor society heavily depends on.

The tight labor market after the pandemic increased workers’ bargaining power, while rising inflation and inequality strengthened their resolve to demand better conditions.

2023 witnessed the highest strike-related workday losses since 2000, with over 15 million workdays lost across 26 strikes through October.

However, these figures remain modest compared to the peak in the 1970s and 1950s, when millions more workdays were lost due to strikes.

The decline in large-scale labor actions over recent decades is largely due to economic shifts, outsourcing, offshoring, and the rise of gig work, all of which have weakened union influence.

Challenges Ahead for Organized Labor

Service industries, which are harder to unionize, now employ six times more workers than manufacturing, mining, and construction combined. New factories often emerge in regions hostile to unions, and major employers like Walmart and Amazon are known for resisting unionization efforts.

Harvard’s Katz cautions about the durability of this labor resurgence, especially if an economic downturn occurs.

Even without a recession, unions face significant obstacles. Most employers remain anti-union, and recent labor victories may represent only a small fraction of the overall labor market, with uncertain prospects for a sustained revival, according to Columbia University economist Suresh Naidu.

Naidu emphasizes that short-term outcomes depend heavily on political dynamics and economic conditions, while long-term success hinges on bridging political divides and uniting workers, particularly those without college degrees, with the broader labor movement.

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