Hasina's conviction for crimes against humanity tests India–Bangladesh ties

For Delhi, Bangladesh's stability and a neighbour aligned with Indian priorities have long been among its most valuable—and politically costly—relationships.

Over 15 years in power, Hasina delivered what India prizes: stability, connectivity, and a neighbour more inclined to line up with New Delhi than with Beijing.

Today, Hasina faces a death sentence by a Bangladeshi special tribunal over crimes against humanity tied to a crackdown on student protests that helped topple her government.

With elections due early next year, Dhaka's response pits an extradition request against Delhi's reluctance to sever a long, interdependent relationship.

What has looked like humanitarian asylum in Delhi is becoming a test of how far India will go to back an old ally and how much diplomatic capital it is willing to spend.

Analyst Michael Kugelman outlines four options for Delhi: extradite Hasina; maintain the status quo; press her to stay silent; or seek a third country. Extradition is unlikely; the status quo risks greater strain as elections approach; pressuring Hasina to stay quiet is unlikely to succeed; a third country would require accepting a high-maintenance guest.

Extraditing Hasina is considered unthinkable by many in India, where both ruling and opposition parties view her as a close friend. The country prides itself on not turning on its friends.

The challenge is underscored by the deep, asymmetrical ties between India and Bangladesh, rooted in India's pivotal role in the birth of Bangladesh.

Bangladesh is India's biggest trading partner in South Asia, and India is Bangladesh's largest export market in Asia. Trade last year neared $13 billion, with a sizable deficit for Dhaka, which relies on Indian raw materials, energy, and transit routes.

India has extended concessional credit, duty-free access to some goods, built cross-border rail links, and supplied electricity and energy from Indian grids and ports—ties that are not easily untied.

As Sanjay Bhardwaj of Jawaharlal Nehru University explains, the relationship hinges on interdependence—water, electricity, and more—that Bangladesh would struggle to sustain without Indian cooperation.

Nonetheless, Bangladesh's interim government under Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus has moved quickly to rebalance external ties, pursuing outreach to Beijing, Islamabad, and Ankara and rethinking some India-led energy and connectivity deals.

A Dhaka-based survey found more than 75% of Bangladeshis hold favorable views of Beijing, while only about 11% view Delhi positively, reflecting discontent with how the Hasina years have been viewed abroad.

Still, long-standing economic and cultural links tend to endure beyond shifts in politics; trade and people-to-people ties often survive contentious diplomatic moments.

For Delhi, the priority remains safeguarding a neighbour crucial to border management and security—especially along the 4,096-km border that is porous and riverine. Instability next door could fuel displacement or extremism, underscoring the need for careful diplomacy.

Experts say the path forward will be turbulent for the next year or so, with the pace and direction depending on Bangladesh's post-election trajectory. If credibility and legitimacy are preserved, a renegotiated, more balanced relationship could emerge.

Diplomats warn there are no quick fixes. The deeper question is why India placed such trust in Hasina and whether that approach can be sustained as public sentiment in Bangladesh shifts.

Ultimately, the next government will need to balance security and trade with domestic politics. While a crisis is unlikely, ties could remain fragile.

Key takeaway: India-Bangladesh ties are deep but delicate, and their future hinges on credible elections in Dhaka and careful, sustained diplomacy in New Delhi. BBC News

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