Holiday Hiring Falls to 15-Year Low as Retailers Hold Back Amid Tariffs and Inflation

For many Americans seeking extra income this holiday season, landing seasonal work has grown tougher than in recent years. Economists warn that tariff pressures and policy uncertainty are cooling demand as shoppers prepare to buy gifts.

Nicholas Strahl, 41, works part-time at an office-supplies store near Indianapolis. He says the pay is decent, but a bit more money would help with bills and gifts. He began applying in October to CVS, Best Buy and other retailers, but has not landed a role yet.

The National Retail Federation projects holiday hiring could total between 265,000 and 365,000 positions, well below last year's 442,000. The drop mirrors caution from retailers amid tariff pressures, rising prices, and a shift toward automation that reduces demand for temporary help.

Economist Allison Shrivastava of Indeed Hiring Lab describes the market as frozen with frostbite, noting that while postings have remained broadly steady year over year, competition for a shrinking pool of roles has intensified.

The government shutdown delayed data, but September payrolls rose more than expected, though the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% from 4.3%.

Revelio Labs shows October retail job openings fell about 22% from a year earlier, signaling softer demand for holiday help. Lisa Simon, Revelio's chief economist, says the usual seasonal pickup is not materializing.

Holding pattern

Several major retailers, including Target and Walmart, have avoided firm numbers on holiday staffing. Walmart says extra hours will largely go to current workers, while Amazon says it will hire about the same number of people as in the past two years.

Analysts say the cautious approach reflects broader uncertainty about consumer spending and the economy, with hiring plans moving at a slower pace than in prior years.

Smaller retailers are also treading carefully. Hobby Works, a Maryland toy chain with 24 employees, pushed back its usual seasonal hiring due to tariff costs and the federal shutdown, choosing lean operations for the holidays.

Hanukkah and Christmas happen every year, so we try not to disrupt hiring too much, says Hobby Works president Michael Brey, though the pace is notably slower this year.

Incredibly stressful

Tanya Secord, who landed a temporary role at Target in 2023, faced a tougher job search this year. She applied to Costco and Target with little response and finally found a receptionist post in early November. She notes rising living costs add to the stress of job hunting.

The holiday season remains a stress test for many workers who rely on seasonal gigs to bridge expenses.

Holiday hiring is cooling as tariff pressures, inflation and policy uncertainty curb demand for seasonal workers, making the season tougher for job seekers nationwide.

Source: BBC News

Key Takeaways

• Seasonal holiday hiring is projected to hit its lowest level since 2008.
• Tariffs, inflation and automation are weighing on demand for temporary workers.
• Major retailers are cautious about adding holiday staff and often rely on existing workers.
• The job market for seasonal roles remains competitive, with more seekers chasing fewer openings.
• Data from Indeed and Revelio Labs show a softer holiday hiring cycle despite steady posting levels.

Expert comment

Expert note: Market watchers say retailers are prioritizing cost control and current staff, signaling a slower holiday season than usual. The reluctance to commit to large seasonal hires suggests broader uncertainty about retail demand.

Summary

The holiday job market is cooling as policy and price pressures weigh on retailers’ willingness to hire. Job seekers face stiffer competition and fewer opportunities for extra income this season. Economists attribute the slowdown to tariffs, inflation, and strategic caution among retailers, with effects likely ripple through consumer spending.